Jotting - Path to war

Timeline

Herein a short note to clear some common misconceptions about the lead up to war in Ukraine. This is not a background to the conflict, which will follow, or a causal analysis, but merely a chronological description of recent events.

In March 2021, Ukrainian President Zelenskyy vowed to retake Crimea, which had been annexed by the Russian Federation in March 2014. From this point on Ukrainian military activities increased in frequency, often in collaboration with NATO countries. The most notable of these was the Sea Breeze 21 naval drills in the Black Sea in July and military drills in September. Russian units shadowed Ukrainian military units throughout the year, from the Russian side of the border. 

https://www.army.mil/article/250444/us_nato_ukraine_enhance_interoperability_with_rapid_trident_exercise

Arrest medvedchuk

From December 2021, the Russian Federation entered a textbook posture of “coercive diplomacy”. This is whereby a stronger power engages in military posturing, commonly referred to as “sabre rattling”, to show that they are serious and force a weaker party to accept an ultimatum or engage in negotiations. Despite months of incessant media coverage predicting invasion, few informed sources took the risk of Russian military action seriously purely because there were no actions to indicate a genuine preparation for military action (gathering of supplies, food, logistical planning, etc). See Gordon Hahn's analysis for more information on this point.

On February 15th 2022, the Russian Duma, claiming an Ukrainian army offensive was imminent, requested that President Putin recognise the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. Putin declined.

On February 18th 2022, the OSCE monitoring missing in east Ukraine reported:

In recent days, the OSCE Special Monitoring to Ukraine (SMM) has observed a dramatic increase in kinetic activity along the contact line in eastern Ukraine, equal to the numbers of ceasefire violations reported before the July 2020 agreement on the Measures to strengthen the ceasefire took effect. 

In reaction to this, civilian authorities in rebel held territory ordered civilians to evacuate to Russia. Furthermore, President Biden also declared on this day that Russia had definitely decided to invade Ukraine. Violence and shelling on both sides increase over the next few days. 

On the evening of February 21st 2022, President Putin signed a decree recognising the independence of Donetsk and Luhansk. Additionally, President Putin signed a defense treaty with the republics of Donetsk and Luhansk. Invoking Article 51 of the United Nations charter, which enables collective self-defense, President Putin ordered a “special military operation” to “denazify and demilitarise” Ukraine. 

This clarifies, from the perspective of international law, the events that have occurred in the build up to war. Namely that the Russian Federation has neither declared war on Ukraine, nor has it “invaded” Ukraine, nor has it sought to occupy and annex Ukraine, nor has it sought “regime change” in Ukraine. The Russian Federation has recognised the independence of the Donbass Republics and come to the their “defense”. 

Russian troops entered Ukraine on February 24.

The key issue then is was the Russian Federation using this as a pretext for invasion or genuinely coming to the defense of the Donbass Republics? 

US President Joe Biden explicitly stated that this was a Russian false flag to justify invasion:

There is simply no evidence of these assertions and it defies basic logic to believe the Ukrainians would chose this moment, with well over 150,000 troops arrayed on its borders, to escalate a year-long (sic) conflict. [This is] consistent with the Russian playbook that has been used before, to set up a false justification to act against Ukraine.

In order to adjudicate, it is worthwhile to examine the daily reports from the OSCE monitoring mission in east Ukraine. The chart below plots shelling in the Donbass, regardless of source, clearly showing a sharp increase in frequency on the 16th of February, one day after the Duma requested President Putin recognise the independence of the Donbass republics.

Plotting below the impact location of the shelling shows that the vast majority of shells fell in rebel held territory. The intensity of the shelling is also heat mapped.

The chart below is produced by army units in rebel held territory and is not independently verified. However, the intensity of shelling in the image above correlates fairly well with areas of massed Ukrainian army artillery in the image below.

Thus, while it is not definitively clear in either way, the evidence from the OSCE reports and the timing of actions in the Russian Duma suggests that local inhabitants in Donbass saw the build up of Ukrainian Army forces, the aforementioned “kinetic activity”; requested independence which was promptly denied by President Putin; there was a sharp increase in shelling suggesting either that fighting broke out or was about to break out; President Putin recognised the independence of the Donetsk and Luhansk Republics after days of heavy shelling; President Putin invoked the concept of collective self-defense to eliminate the Ukrainian Army presence in east Ukraine.

The key date was February 18th, the date on which Ukranian forces geared up for an offensive and civilian authorities in rebel held areas ordered a general evacuation. This was the event that convinced Biden that Russian military action was imminent.